The following Guest article is an extract from the book Project Decisions: The Art and Science By authors Lev Virine and Michael Trumper, published by Management Concepts, Inc.© 2008. Reproduced with permission. Published here July 2008.

## Questions 8 to 10

8.   You are a screenplay writer trying to figure out what type of screenplay will have the best chance of being produced. As part of this decision, you have reviewed historical data related to all the screenplays you know and have put them in the table below. What type of screenplay will have highest probability of not being produced?

 Screenplay not produced Screenplay produced A.    Action 20 times 4 times B.    Love stories 11 times 2 times C.    Children stories 15 times 3 times

9.   Your project is to buy new clothes for the fall season. You read a number of fashion magazines and see that most experts agree that a mixture of bright and pale tones will be in style during the fall. A few magazines also stress the revival of a historical theme. In addition, some articles emphasize a trend to pink and blue colors. Which description do you think will be the most probable?

 A. Bright hues mixed with pale tones. B. Bright hues mixed with pale tones, combined with purity of pink and blue colors. C. Bright hues mixed with pale tones, combined with purity of pink and blue colors that bring a sense of energy and refinement to historical and classic themes.

10.   You are a stunt double in a western movie. Despite all your skills, you fall from your horse in 16% of all the shots. The occurrence of these falls appears to be completely random; it does not seem to have any correlation to how hard you try, what horse you use, the weather conditions, the filming locale, or anything else. In this movie, you have already fallen from your horse 7 times out of 35 shots. Are you going to be lucky the next time around? How many times do you estimate you will fall from the horse in the remaining 25 shots?

 A. 5 times B. 2 times C. 4 times