Answers to Questions 5 to 10
5. The correct answer is A (your forecast will lead
to a 5% longer filming time than the official weather forecast). The moment of
risk (when the snow falls) may significantly affect duration. See Chapter 17,
"A Series of Unfortunate Events, or Event Chain Methodology."
6. Whatever money you have already invested in MC Uglyface's
career is a sunk cost. The high success rate of the ad campaign applies to other
rappers, and there is evidence that more ad campaigns will not help MC Uglyface.
We recommend answer C (give up with MC Uglyface and start promoting the rapper
BadPosture). For more information about sunk cost, read Chapter 2, "'Gut
Feel' vs. Decision Analysis: An Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making
" and Chapter 20, "Adaptive Project Management."
7. The correct answer is B (1%.) You need to multiply
all probabilities: 0.1 (become celebrity) * 1 (married) * 1 (divorced)
* 0.1 (choose lawyer) = 0.01. This question is related to the bias called
"overestimating the probability of conjunctive events": people tend to choose
much higher numbers. See Appendix B, "Heuristics and Biases in Project Management."
8. The correct answer is B (love stories). This question
is related to the co-variation assessment effect. People tend to pay more attention
to high absolute values rather than relative indicators of success or failure.
The relative chance that the screenplay will be produced is higher for love stories
(11/2 = 5.5). See Chapter 14, "Choosing What Is Most Important: Sensitivity
Analysis and Correlations."
9. The correct answer is A (short descriptions such
as "Bright hues mixed with pale tones" are more general and therefore more probable).
The more conditions that you add to a description, the less likely it is that
all of them will be met. This question is related to the representativeness heuristic
and particularly to the conjunction fallacy. These are discussed in Chapter 2,
"'Gut Feel' vs. Decision Analysis: An Introduction to the Psychology of Project
10. The correct answer is C (4 times). The probability
always remains the same: 16% (25 trials * 16% = 4 times). This question is
related to the gambler's fallacy. See Appendix B, Heuristics and Biases in