Questions 5 to 7
5. You are in Anchorage, Alaska, to film the new National
Lampoon's Vacation in Hawaii movie starring Chevy Chase. If snow starts falling
while filming a beach scene, you will have to restart 10 days of shooting.
The chance of snowfall is 30%, and the official weather forecast says that there
is an equal probability of snowfall for each of the 10 days. However, you
think that it is most likely to snow close to the end of filming rather than at
the beginning. Assuming that both forecasts are equally accurate, which situation
will result in the longest time to complete filming, taking into account potential
delays?
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A.
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Your forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than the official weather
forecast.
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B.
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The official forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than your forecast.
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C.
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Filming will take about the same time regardless of the forecast.
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6. You are involved in a project to promote rapper
MC Uglyface. Despite spending $1 million for ads, video clips, and marketing
promotions, MC Uglyface is still at the bottom of the charts. What option
would you choose?
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A.
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One more $50,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were
successful in 50% of the cases.
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B.
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One more $100,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were
successful in 75% of the cases.
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C.
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Give up on MC Uglyface and start promoting the rapper BadPosture.
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7. You met a young actress who you believe can be an
A-list actress and celebrity in a few years, so you offer to be her divorce lawyer.
What is the chance that you will earn millions in attorney fees from her if there
is a 10% chance that she will become a celebrity, a 100% chance that she will
be married, a 100% chance that she will be divorced, and a 10% chance that she
will choose you to be her divorce lawyer?
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A.
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10%
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B.
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1%
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C.
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0.1%
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D.
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100%
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Questions
1 to 4
