The following Guest article is an extract from the book Project Decisions: The Art and Science By authors Lev Virine and Michael Trumper, published by Management Concepts, Inc.© 2008. Reproduced with permission. Published here July 2008.

## Questions 5 to 7

5.   You are in Anchorage, Alaska, to film the new National Lampoon's Vacation in Hawaii movie starring Chevy Chase. If snow starts falling while filming a beach scene, you will have to restart 10 days of shooting. The chance of snowfall is 30%, and the official weather forecast says that there is an equal probability of snowfall for each of the 10 days. However, you think that it is most likely to snow close to the end of filming rather than at the beginning. Assuming that both forecasts are equally accurate, which situation will result in the longest time to complete filming, taking into account potential delays?

 A. Your forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than the official weather forecast. B. The official forecast will lead to a 5% longer filming time than your forecast. C. Filming will take about the same time regardless of the forecast.

6.   You are involved in a project to promote rapper MC Uglyface. Despite spending \$1 million for ads, video clips, and marketing promotions, MC Uglyface is still at the bottom of the charts. What option would you choose?

 A. One more \$50,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were successful in 50% of the cases. B. One more \$100,000 ad campaign because similar campaigns for other rappers were successful in 75% of the cases. C. Give up on MC Uglyface and start promoting the rapper BadPosture.

7.   You met a young actress who you believe can be an A-list actress and celebrity in a few years, so you offer to be her divorce lawyer. What is the chance that you will earn millions in attorney fees from her if there is a 10% chance that she will become a celebrity, a 100% chance that she will be married, a 100% chance that she will be divorced, and a 10% chance that she will choose you to be her divorce lawyer?

 A. 10% B. 1% C. 0.1% D. 100%