A paper presented to the Project Management Symposium on PM: Project Manager Role Evolution, Rome, Italy, 2004.
"PMI" and "PMBOK" are the registered trademarks of the Project Management Institute.
Published here October 2004.
Project Management Maturity Models
There will be at least three major models competing in the global marketplace: PMI's OPM3, Japan's P2M, and outgrowths from the UK's OGC PRINCE2 approach. Adaptations of these, as well as new models, will emerge within specific areas of application. Translations of the basic models and their area-specific adaptations into the eight or ten major languages will also appear.
Individual Capabilities in Project Management
- Certification of individuals in project management will be:
- Much more heavily based on proven capabilities
- Almost entirely focused on specific areas of application and/or specific categories of projects
- Awarded at several levels: Program manager, project manager, and several project specialist categories (cost, estimating, scheduling, risk, and others)
- Demonstrated knowledge of and capabilities in project management, but not necessarily project management certification, will be a prerequisite for advancement to almost all senior management positions by within all project driven organizations, and within many project dependent organizations as well.
- Governmental licensing of project management practitioners will not exist.
"While I believe that project management should be embraced and used by all executives and organizations, it will also be a 'career path' for many individuals and certainly in very projectized industries such as construction, energy, petrochemicals, aerospace, defense and other engineering-based endeavors. Membership in project management professional societies will be a requirement for those actively involved in project management."
"They will also be useful as sources of education and information for the much broader set of professionals and executives who must understand project management but who may not be managing projects themselves. In addition, project management should also be recognized as a great training and proving ground for future CEOs because of the broad range of functional and stakeholder issues that a project management on any large or mission-critical project must cover". (Pells 2003).
Projects, Programs, and Project Portfolios
- Project portfolio management will be in widespread use.
- A global project classification system based on the characteristics of project results will be accepted by the major project management associations and used by most practitioners.
- The characteristics of projects and programs within specific project categories of the classification system will be the subject of intensified research.
- Project management certification programs will be offered in consonance with this project classification system.
Project Life Cycle Models
- A catalog of project life cycle models related to the project classification system will be available for adaptation and use by practitioners to fit their project categories and environments.
- Most projects will be managed on a total life cycle basis.
- The post project phase of "realization of project benefits" will become increasingly recognized as a proper part of the total project life cycle.
Areas of Application of Project Management
- Within the next five years formalized project management will be in use in essentially all areas of human endeavor.
Project Management Planning and Control Systems and Tools
- Project management software and the information it produces will be fully integrated with all corporate information systems
- Project management software will be further specialized to fit the project classification system and the catalog of project life cycle models
- Web enabled project management software will be used by all but the smallest enterprises
- Wireless handheld, notebook, and desk top computers will be used by most project teams for planning and control purposes, accessing the complex project management applications that will reside on centralized servers
- The project management software industry will enter its mature phase and we will witness the classic consolidation of a mature technology or industry.
- Virtual project teams will meet regularly via video conferencing on most projects
- The majority of project managers will understand the importance of, and be proficient in, team building and team leadership.
The "Profession" of Project Management
- Many people within the project management community will still be referring to the "profession" of project management, however there will not be any U.S. state or Canadian province that has an official licensing statute for project management practitioners, program or project managers, educators, consultants, trainers, or software vendors.
- Project management disciplines and practices will be widely known and used by managers at many levels in essentially all industries and human agencies in the developed world.