This paper was submitted for publication 1/13/06 and is copyright to Lev Virine© 2006.
Published here August 2006.

Abstract | Introduction | Moment of Risk and State of Activity 
Event Chains | Performance Tracking with Event and Event Chains
History Matching and Relevance Analysis | Risk Event Chains and Risk Mitigation

Performance Tracking with Event and Event Chains

Monitoring the progress of activities ensures that updated information is used to perform the Event Chain Methodology analysis. During the course of the project, the probability and time of the events can be recalculated based on actual data. Quantitative analysis can be performed again and a new project schedule and cost will be generated.

The main issue with performance tracking is in forecasting an activity's duration and cost if an activity is partially completed and certain events are assigned to the activity. The simple heuristic approach to this problem is to analyze the moment of risk, which is defined as one of the event parameters. Advanced analysis can be performed using a Bayesian approach.

Risk Event Chain Diagrams

Risk Event Chain Diagrams are visualizations that show the relationships between risk events and tasks and how the events affect each other. The simplest way to represent these chains is to depict them as arrows associated with certain tasks or time intervals on the Gantt chart. Different events and event chains can be displayed using different colors. Events can be global (for all tasks in the project) and local (for a particular task). By using Event Chain Diagrams to visualize events and event chains, the modeling and analysis of risks and uncertainties can be significantly simplified.

Figure 3: An event chain diagram
Figure 3: An event chain diagram
Event Chains  Event Chains

Home | Issacons | PM Glossary | Papers & Books | Max's Musings
Guest Articles | Contact Info | Search My Site | Site Map | Top of Page