This paper was submitted for publication 1/13/06 and is copyright to Lev Virine© 2006.
Published here August 2006.

Abstract | Introduction | Moment of Risk and State of Activity 
Event Chains | Performance Tracking with Event and Event Chains
History Matching and Relevance Analysis | Risk Event Chains and Risk Mitigation

Lev Virine, PhD, is president and co-founder of Invater Institute, a Calgary (Canada) based research, software development, and consulting company. Lev has twenty years of engineering and project management experience in information technology and construction industries and is author of more than thirty scientific papers and patents. Lev's current research interests include decision and risk analysis, project management, and their applications. The company web site is He can be reached at


In real projects, the analysis of cost, duration, finish time, success rate, and other project parameters becomes increasingly complex when the multiple risks and uncertainties inherent in these projects are taken into account. Quantitative risk analysis methods enable project and operations managers to assess how these risks will affect their projects. Their main challenge is to determine how to visualize and model the complex relationships between task risks. Only then can they define the uncertainties and risks, analyze the probability of risk occurrence, monitor their impacts, and mitigate the negative effects during the course of the project. Event Chain Methodology is a process that has been developed to meet these challenges. Event Chain Methodology is a practical method of modeling uncertainties in various time-related business and technological processes.


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