This case study is an abridged version of Mark Kozak-Holland's eBook: Project Lessons from The Great Escape (Stalag Luft III). It was submitted for publication by email 11/6/08.
It is copyright to M. Kozak-Holland, © 2008.

PART 1 | Introduction to Part 2 | Risk Management Planning 
Qualitative Risk Analysis | Quantitative Risk Analysis | Risk Response Planning
Risk Monitoring and Control | Conclusion | Part 2 - Case Study Exercises

Quantitative Risk Analysis

This calculates the cost of impact for each risk, in priority order of the risks. So if the risk was to happen, what is the estimated cost in terms of effort, materials, equipment, and tools through direct and indirect costs (to other tasks)?

For the first risk - escape plot discovery:

  • The cost of trap or tunnel discovery was almost always catastrophic in that typically the project was over. The costs were extremely high in terms of effort put in, thousands of man-hours, and quantity of shoring materials. Once a tunnel was detected, none of these would be recovered and everything was lost.
  • The cost of not containing nosy ferrets could be measured in the loss of output of clandestine activities measured in effort put in, hundreds of man-hours, and the materials for the activity. For example, discovery of one of the escape factories (manufacturing items for the escape) would have a significant impact on the project.
  • The cost of tunnel sand discovery was very serious as it would likely increase the intensity of searches for the tunnel and hence put the project at risk. It is likely the ferrets would not cease looking for the tunnel.

For the second risk - dangers with tunnel engineering:

  • The cost of collapsing tunnels was disastrous and could be measured in terms of lost lives and abandonment of the tunnel. The tunnels were long (330 feet/100 m) and very deep (30 feet/9 m). One cubic metre was approximately 1 ton, so there was a significant weight above the tunnel.
  • The cost of bad air saturated in carbon dioxide could also be measured in terms of serious injury or loss of lives.
Qualitative Risk Analysis  Qualitative Risk Analysis

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