Preface

Acknowledgements

Test Your Judgment Quiz

Part 1 - Introduction to Project Decision analysis

1.

Project Decision Analysis: What is it

2.

"Gut Feel" vs. Decision Analysis: Introduction to the Psychology of Project Decision-Making

3.

Understanding the Decision Analysis Process

4.

What is Rational Choice? A brief introduction to Decision Theory

5.

Creativity in Project management

6.

Group Judgment and Decisions

7.

Are You Allowed to Make a Decision? Or the "Frustrated Developer's Syndrome"

Part 2 - Decision-Framing

8.

Identifying Problems and Assessing Situations

9.

Defining Project Objectives

10.

Generating Alternatives and Identifying Risks

Part 3 - Modeling the Situation

11.

The Psychology and Politics of Estimating

12.

Project Valuation Models

13.

Estimating Probabilities

Part 4 - Quantitative Analysis

14.

Choosing What Is Most Important: Sensitivity Analysis and Correlations

15.

Decision Trees and the Value of New Information

16.

What is Project Risk? PERT and Monte Carlo

17.

"A Series of Unfortunate Events" or Event Chain Methodology

18.

The Art of Decision Analysis Reporting

19.

Making a Choice with Multiple Objectives

Part 5 - Implementing, Monitoring, and Reviews

20.

Adaptive Project Management

21.

Did You Make the Right Choice? Reviewing project decisions

Conclusion - Does Decision Analysis Provide a Solution?

Appendixes

A.

Risk and Decision Analysis Software

B.

Heuristics and Biases in Project Management

C.

Risk Templates

D.

Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methodologies

Glossary

Future Reading References